The Accidental Superpower

Russia’s challenge is straightforward, if not simple: Its demographic decline is so steep, so far advanced, and so multivectored that for demographic reasons alone Russia is unlikely to survive as a state, and Russians are unlikely to survive as a people over the next couple of generations. Yet within Russia’s completely indefensible borders, it cannot possibly last even that long. Russia has at most eight years of relative strength to act. If it fails, it will have lost the capacity to man a military. To maintain a sizable missile fleet. To keep its roads and rail system in working order. To prevent its regional cities from collapsing. To monitor its frontier. To delay its national twilight. The most effective use of its time would be to attempt to reanchor in as many of Central Eurasia’s border regions as possible, allowing Russia to concentrate forces in the Hordelands’ access points. Success would doom Russia to a slow-motion demographic disintegration from within. Failure would leave Russia open to hostile forces along all of its borders while it is disintegrating from within. The first is a recipe for death over several decades. The second is a recipe for death over one or two. It is extremely likely that Russia lacks the strength to plug all of the gaps in its frontier, so it will have to prioritize. Here is the order I see Russia acting to attempt to preserve its existence. Russia’s single largest concern is Ukraine. (Location 2723)

In any form an independent Ukraine is a threat to Russia. But it is only the first threat Russia must address before 2020. (Location 2754)